Tonight looks very promising. We have increased solar wind conditions from a coronal hole that was earth-directed a few days ago.

The current magnetic direction is excellent, and good lights are expected if that continues into the evening. The current magnetic direction is deep negative around BZ -10. That can change if it flips to positive and stays that way. Very little will be seen.

When the magnetic direction is deep negative, it is also possible that a super strong substorm is released with amazing northern lights that explode in the sky. But after the explosion, there can be a relatively long time for the subsequent explosion to happen.

Yesterday, for example, a powerful blast around 17:00 Icelandic time resulted in great northern lights that we did not see here in Iceland as it was still too bright. But further east, for example, Norway-Sweeden-Finnland experienced great lights early evening as it was already dark.

That resulted in relatively weak lights in most parts of the evening here in Iceland, as it can take up to 3.5 hours on average for another substorm to develop. But we experienced some lights and then a decent burst of lights from 23:45-00:30.

for tonight I would suggest being out early as soon as it is dark, dressing warm, and staying patient. it is possible good lights are formed early. but be patient if not. lights will come if the magnetic field is deep negative.